YouGov’s first constituency-by-constituency estimate of the election results predicts that the Conservative Party could lose 20 seats and Labour could gain almost 30 in next week’s election.
That means Tories could ultimately win 310 seats at the election, falling short of an absolute majority of 326 seats needed to form a government.
Such a result on June 9 would be catastrophic for May, who called for the snap election back in April, arguing the UK needed certainty, stability and strong leadership in Brexit negotiations with the EU.
The prime minister, however, said Monday that the government would “negotiate the right deal” but “no deal is better than a bad deal. We have to be prepared to walk out.”
Andrew Hawkins, the chairman of ComRes, a market research consultancy, told The Times, “If voters behave in the way they broadly did in 2015 then the Conservatives remain on track for a 100-plus majority. This seems, on present assumptions, the most likely outcome.”
However, May’s popularity in polls has declined in recent weeks as she was forced into an embarrassing U-turn over a proposed social care reform plan known as the “dementia tax.”
Four opinion polls published on Saturday showed that May’s lead narrowed by a range of two to six percentage points.
On May 18, the Conservative Party launched its manifesto, “Forward, Together: Our plan for a stronger Britain and a prosperous future.”
Under the manifesto, middle-class pensioners are set to lose benefits to fund social care. It also introduced plans to begin means-testing winter fuel payments and to charge more people who currently receive free care.
The opposition led by Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn, has argued that May’s policy plans would create “war between generations.”
“Society should not be setting the future of our young against security for the old. We have the wealth to offer a decent, secure life for all,” he said.